From 2004 to 2006, oil prices have increased substantially, but during the first week of September 2005, gasoline prices in the United States reached their highest point in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, with an average retail price of about $3.04 per gallon.
The effect of gasoline prices after President Bush's approval ratings in 2006 have caused contradictory speculation on the trends of gasoline prices during this year and the upcoming months.
Most analysts have concluded that there is no alarming reason in the increasing prices because, statistically, changes in gasoline prices and the President's ratings throughout his mandate have shown a steady and healthy relationship.
Statisticians who have compared changes in gas prices and Bush's ratings through his presidency have found a steady relationship: As gas prices rise, his ratings fall. As gas prices fall, his ratings rise.
Bush says that the cheaper gasoline is actually gas premium, and there is nothing to worry about. However, as the gasoline prices rise, the Oval Office is more concerned about getting Mr. President ratings to fall, contrary to the rise on his ratings when gas prices fall.
President's approval rating is a number that measures his political health, influenced by legislative initiatives and his different affairs, including matters just like this, the major worry of most Americans.
According to Stuart Thiel, economist at DePaul University in Chicago, "Gas prices are a price everybody knows because it hangs on the street in big letters"
In addition, those words are not just a speculation fact. Thiel has tracked the trend of gasoline prices for several years, and he knows what he is talking about.
Apart from Jimmy Carter, no other President besides Bush has seen his ratings so closely attached to gasoline prices. With his popularity tied up to gasoline since he took office in January 2001, Bush's rating can be easily understood reviewing the charts, which are closely tied to the price of gas. In fact, more than three-quarters of the variation in his approval rating since he took office in January 2001 can be explained reviewing and comparing the movements in numbers predicted for gas in nationwide charts.
The long-term history plotted by Gallup using Bush's approval rating and actual gasoline prices show the real trajectory of the trends, away from speculations, with Bush approval ratings up.
Despite the 9/11 and the Iraq invasion in the past, during September 2006 The President's rating rose up to 44%, Bush's highest rating during the whole year.
Trends of gasoline prices today are predicted to stay invariable, but with tendency to low. Gasoline average prices dropped under $2.30, after price per gallon peaked the highest point past August. There was a large reduction in gas prices this November, but the cost per gallon is on the rise again.
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